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Scenario Planning & Analysis

The unthinkable can happen. Stretch your imagination, challenge your thinking

Analyse challenging future scenarios to test and reinforce strategic plans

Anticipate trends, trend breaks and transitions

The future develops often erratically and takes unexpected twists and turns on a regular basis. New technologies, business models and players can radically change markets in a short space of time. Thinking through and analysing different future scenarios is a powerful and indispensable tool for organisations to actively prepare for it. Scenario planning stretches the imagination about the future and increases insight into external developments in order to anticipate structural changes earlier.

Scenario planning serves a variety of purposes

  • analyse inevitable, uncertain & unknown factors and developments that will shape and may radically shake up a sector in the coming year

  • ‘windtunnel', test & strength strategies, business models, investments, and organisational plans under different circumstances in the scenarios

  • discover attractive opportunities that structural changes offer and assess strategic competencies that are essential to implement them successfully

  • identify strategic risks that bring about external changes and assess responses to mitigate or benefit from them

Explore the future during & after the corona crisis

Scenario planning is ideally suited to deal with complex situations that are constantly changing and in which insights gradually grow ... like the current corona crisis. Research into previous economic crises shows that successful companies respond flexibly to circumstances during the crisis but in particular work on creating a good starting position for after the crisis. For example, analysing the different scenarios can help to assess which developments are accelerated by the crisis and what is needed to respond to them.

Stages in a scenario exploration from start to finish

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  1. List the driving forces that shape & may shake up the future of a sector

  2. Explore the directions in which these forces may develop and select relevant future scenarios to challenge and stretch current views

  3. Think through the set of scenarios to analyse strategic implications of structural changes, taking  characteristics & consequences of the corona crisis into account

  4. Explore the scenarios to identify effective strategies, business models & interventions to create & secure the best future for your organisation and ‘wind tunnel’ these in the other scenarios to test and reinforce them

  5. Then select the best strategies and interventions given current indicators of the future, keep on monitoring possible developments in order to respond rapidly when trend breaks occur.

Projects & Customers

@FairSights we have 25 years of experience with exploring the future using scenario planning & analysis for organisations and industries of all kinds and all over the world.

Analysing three possible scenarios on the future of Africa to determine the regional strategy for a global brewer.

Scenario exercise with a central bank to analyse scenarios for the world economy  and assess implications for monetary policies.

Determining the consequences of three future scenarios for mobility, travelling by train and station design.

Thinking through scenarios on the future of energy to assess strategic implications for energy production and consumption.

Determining possible strategic implications of the ever-growing role of big data players in healthcare.

Various scenario exercises on the future of the financial sector and markets to identify attractive growth opportunities.