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Explore, anticipate & design policies for the future

Scenario Analysis for  Governments


In the Scenario Analysis for Governments programma, participants learn to apply scenario analysis both to respond to sudden changes in the short term and to design longer-term strategic transformations for societal challenges and transitions.

Exploring & addressing challenges

Governments and public organisations face important strategic challenges in numerous policy areas and complex fields of forces. While the sectors in which they operate can change erratically and unexpectedly in the short term, in the long term they must work on major transitions and transformations to address social challenges and achieve policy objectives. The stakes are often high and misjudgements and choices have major consequences. Scenario analysis is a powerful and structured approach for governments to anticipate and respond to diverse circumstances. Thinking through and analysing alternative future scenarios as virtual 'wind tunnels' helps in the short term to respond to sudden changes and stimulates in the longer term the development of alternative policy directions. It also structures a joint dialogue between all stakeholders to develop and strengthen new options in co-creation.


The programme combines in-depth insight into the principles and functioning of scenario analysis and examples of scenario projects with practical exercises. Participants go through a full scenario cycle, from exploring the forces that shape and firmly shake up the future of a sector or policy area, to designing new policy options to solve or contribute to. Attention is paid to the application of scenario analysis in both the short and longer term. In between the two blocks of the programme, there is ample room to apply scenario analysis to the challenges in the policy area and the future of participants’ own organisation. During and after the programme, the lecturer is available for questions and support.


  • Ability to design, lead and apply scenario analysis to simulate and test short-term plans and approaches and develop new longer-term policies.

  • Being able to select relevant future scenarios in different ways, to think them through and analyse them and foresee possible circumstances.

  • A flying start in using scenario analysis for policy development in or of one's own organisation.

  • One-year subscription to the weekly newsletter onFutureScenarios that explores, maps and monitors the future of a range of industries to detect disruptive and structural changes to identify attractive business opportunities as well as strategic risks.


Participants work for the government or a (semi-)governmental organisation and are responsible for the execution of existing governmental tasks or the development of new policies. They want to prepare themselves adequately for various circumstances and anticipate and respond to possible or necessary social transitions. It does not matter in what policy area or on what scale a government body or organisation operates. With scenario analysis, they can tackle important societal and policy challenges in a structured way and in cooperation with other parties involved.

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