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Where will 'white swan' Covid-19 lead to?

Death toll rates from the covid-19 virus are rising. Los Alamos researchers calcultate that the total number of cases will lie somewhere between a staggering 550,000 and 4,4 million, in part depending on how many are really affected by the virus. Investors on the stock exchange do not seem to be impressed, yet, that may change soon. China's economy is slowing down, Japan's economy shrinks at its fastest pace in six years, South-Korea speaks of 'economic emergency', profit warnings hit records in Germany, Apple points to its falling iPhone sales, while Jaguar Land Rover flies parts out of China in suitcases to keep its UK plants open as long as possible. Is this an unexpected 'black swan' that spreads its impact around our strongly connected world and marks the start of a 'perfect storm'? Or is it, as Taleb himself calls it, a 'white swan' that was to be expected and as such the following pandemic could have been prevented? Whatever is the case, the world now has to deal the current consequences. In our services-dominated economies, including China, a decline in travel, tourism, hospitality, entertainment, and, even, grooming will inevitably translate into lower economic growth. Time to prepare for the worst 'if' it happens in order to prevent it at the same time.

Photo by birgl from Pixabay


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